On February 13, just two weeks into the tax filing season, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) indicated the average tax refund was $2,476. This amount is 14.2% higher compared to the early filing period last year.

While there is an expectation in Washington that refunds will be larger because of new deductions under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), it is still quite early in the filing season. To date, taxpayers filed approximately 15 million Schedules 1A with their IRS Forms 1040. This schedule is used to claim many of the new deductions under OBBBA. Deductions for tips and overtime appear to be a substantial part of the new tax savings.

Andrew Lautz of the Bipartisan Policy Center stated, "An important caveat to any updates this early in the filing season is that it is too early to determine if data points will turn into durable trends." However, as the filing season moves forward and the earned income tax credit (EITC) and child tax credits (CTC) are processed, the size of refunds generally increases.

The IRS website, IRS.gov, has received 42% more visits than it did last year. This figure is an indication that there is great interest in the OBBBA benefits for tips, overtime and the senior deduction that offsets most Social Security payments.

The filing season will be a major test for the IRS. Under various budget cuts and programs allowing early retirement, the IRS has lost about one-fourth of its work force during the past year. As a result, there is still a backlog in individual tax returns. The Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration notes that IRS staff members are working to reduce the tax return backlog and answer calls from taxpayers.

According to the early statistics, there has been a small decline in filed tax returns. In early filing, there are 2% fewer returns filed electronically and just over 5% fewer returns from tax professionals.

Pete Sepp of the National Taxpayers Union noted, "If, however, we still have double-digit decreases in processing past the end of this month (which we will not know until mid-March), then we can start drawing conclusions about whether there might be systemic service delays."